The gap between saplings planted and trees alive several years later is determined largely by aftercare in the first dry season. Audit data from CAMPA operations and tropical restoration research consistently point to limited post-planting maintenance as the primary driver of survival failure.
The evidence
A 2024 performance audit by the CAG of Odisha's CAMPA operations found plantation survival as low as 7.5% at certain sites between 2016–17 and 2019–20, citing limited maintenance after planting. A 2025 national review of CAMPA performance found state-level survival rates ranging from around 40% to over 90%, with variation linked in part to differences in aftercare practice. Restoration research on tropical and sub-tropical Asian forests has reported average mortality of 18% in the first year, rising to roughly 44% by year five.
The structure of the aftercare window
Plantation budgets typically cover sapling procurement, site preparation, planting day, and initial protection. Aftercare activities — watering through the first dry season, weeding, replacement of mortalities, and ongoing protection from grazing — sit on a different cost line. In CSR-funded projects, aftercare is sometimes handled by an implementation partner under a defined contract, and sometimes not. The result is that responsibility for aftercare can shift hands several times during the critical window.
What aftercare consists of
The actions that determine first-year survival are well understood and not technically complex: watering on a defined schedule during the first dry season; basin maintenance and weeding around each sapling; replacement of mortalities within the planting season; protection from grazing with periodic checks and re-protection; and structural support for taller saplings against wind in exposed sites. None of these require advanced training — each requires scheduled execution with verification that the action occurred.
Why the window is hard to monitor
A stressed sapling in month three can look similar to a healthy one. By month nine, distinguishing the two is straightforward, but much of the underlying damage is no longer reversible. Standard reporting cycles compound this: planting figures are typically reported within weeks, but survival assessments are often scheduled at year two or year three. The information needed to intervene effectively sits earlier than these cycles routinely cover.
What a more instrumented plantation includes
Tree-level records from planting day with each sapling geolocated and tagged; scheduled aftercare with verification such as photographs or mobile logs; and monthly mortality tracking with replacement happening within the planting season. The cost of these elements has fallen with the maturity of mobile inspection apps, low-cost identifiers, and remote-sensing-based survival checks.
The procurement lever
Plantation contracts that link payment partly to milestone-based survival, verified by a third party, distribute incentive across the aftercare window rather than concentrating it on the planting event. Some state forest departments have begun adopting this approach in CAMPA work. The same structure can be specified in CSR contracts and ULB tenders.
